In related news, the manipulation of statistics

October 30, 2006I was watching a documentary on the bible code the other day, and I was struck by how deceptive they were with the statistics.  The had a particular code and said that the chances of that happening by chance are 1 in 10^324.  The fact that something is unlikely to happen a certain way by chance doesn't mean it's necessarily significant.  Pretend I flipped a coin 10 times and got the following: HTTHTTHTTH.  Now, that's a neat pattern.  And what's the chance I'd get that?  Well 1 in 2^10.  That is very large, so it must be supernatural!   ????  Look, no matter what I flipped, I'd have only a 2^10 chance of flipping that.  No matter what 3 cards you draw from a deck, you have only 1 in 22,100 to draw those cards.  It's easy to look back and say that what happened was statistically improbable, but that doesn't make it special or supernatural.

Here's the point: when people tell you that what just happened was improbable and therefore important, take it with a grain of salt.  No matter what happens, it probably would have been unlikely for it to unfold exactly that way.  Things have to occur somehow, don't they?

Webmaster Ethics and Deal or No Deal

October 29, 2006I recently got into what could be considered a heated debate on some guy's website.  After a couple episodes of Deal Or No Deal, I decided to see if others agreed with me about proper statistical decision making as it applies to the game.  He seemed to go into great depth about what he thought, but I considered his analysis flawed, so I posted what I thought was a simple correction.  Well, apparently he didn't like that.  First he argued with me, then he posted the following:


Anyway, I thought this rather funny and responded with a post restating my reasoning and telling him that he should be more careful about bragging about education.  He then made this guess about my own background.

In the best case scenario, you attended either a state university or
second tier specialty school (and no, there’s no way it was on par with
a UNC or a UVA)

You received a degree in a major that covers very general topics —
something like Business Administration, Management, or Communications
(although I hope not, because you do a poor job of constructing an
argument)

You may have received a decent GPA,
but if the above bullet points are true, this really isn’t that
impressive given the difficulty of both your school and your major.

After this, I found myself suddenly unable to post on his site.  I formulated a more... formal (wordy) version of my reasoning, but it wouldn't go through even when I changed my email address.  Eventually, I had Paul post it for me.  Apparently the guy just blocked my IP address.  If you can't beat 'em, block 'em??

Anyway, I think the show is interesting, so I'll share what he thought and what I think.

He states clearly that he believes that the goal of the game is to "beat the mean".  The mean, of course, it calculated by taking the average of all the values not yet revealed.  He says that if any offer is extended that beats the current mean, then you'd "be an idiot not to take it."

My thinking is this: what really matters is what will happen as a result of your choice to settle or not.  Your offer is based on the mean, right?  Then if the mean is likely to go up, then your offer is likely to go up.  Your calculation then, should not be whether the offer is above or below the mean, but whether the next offer will be higher or lower.  The premise of my thinking, of course, is not to beat the mean but to maximize how much you take home.  Why settle for any offer if you expect the next offer to be higher?  You don't have to think about what might be in your case until the end of the game.

So let's look at an application to see how these two theories work.  Let's say there are 5 values left: $10, $200, $20,000, $100,000, and $500,000.  The mean is about $124,000.  By the other guy's logic, an offer of $130,000 should be accepted, because it is above the mean.  By my logic, you should reject this deal, because you have an 80% chance of your offer going up next time (because the mean will increase).

You can decide for yourself.  Accept the deal or reject it?  Oh, and I apologize if you've never seen the show and none of this makes any sense.  What do you guys think?  Anyway... HE TRIED TO BLOCK ME FROM HIS SITE!  It's really ridiculous.  How insecure do you have to be to block someone because you can't refute their arguments?

Josh Morgan, Tool Maker

October 29, 2006So I decided it was time to change my sprockets and chain, as well as some general maintenance like replacing the air filter.  Here's how it went:

Sprockets and Chain: my initial research indicated that it was going to cost about $280 for parts and another $120 for installation.  That, of course, was very high, so I kept looking.  I found that the original chain was a D.I.D O-ring chain, which I could by for about $20 less if I didn't go through an official Honda Parts Provider.  It's the same chain, but it doesn't have that OEM stamp.  The sprockets were a little different.  I wanted a smaller rear sprocket because I do so much interstate driving.  The smaller ratio will help my gas mileage a bit by dropping my engine RPM's.  This, though, meant that I couldn't get the OEM sprockets because the OEM only came in the original size.  After finding what was available, I started digging into manufacturers to find out what their sprockets were made of and how they were made.  I ended up going with JT sprockets, because they use very strong, durable steels and a CNC machine for precision cutting.  And, they're heat treated, so I was sold.  I got them below OEM prices too.

For the installation, I decided to do it myself.  Getting off the front and rear sprockets was pretty easy.  The new sprockets fit just like the old ones, and all the components were easy to reach.  The chain was harder, so I did a lot of reading before I committed to doing it.  To get the old chain off, I just used my dremel with a cut-off wheel.  Didn't take long at all.  The new chain came with a rivet-style master link, meaning that it's more secure than a clip, but harder to get on.  I also had to remove a link from the new chain because the smaller sprocket made it slightly too long.  And thus began the tool making.  I needed a way to press out an old link and a way to mushroom out the ends of the rivets on the master.  I ended up making a series of pins that I could put in a C-clamp and use to push out the old pins.  It worked great.  I ground off one end of the pin I was removing, and then used the clamp, the pins I made, and a socket (as a spacer).  It came out without a problem.  I also mounted a ball bearing in a cylindrical piece so I could spread the ends of the master link rivet's.  This didn't work as easily, because it kept trying to roll.  In the end, though, I got the ends expanded, and I have a fancy new chain and sprocket set.

Air Filter: I replaced the stock air filter with a K&N air filter.  It comes with a 1,000,000 mile warrantee, and just says to pull it out, clean it, and reinstall it every 50,000 miles or so.

Everything is back together and properly adjusted.  As far as projects go, this one seemed to be particularly successful.  And I got to make my own tools and save a LOT of money.  :) 

The waaaah-nderful life of the average American Teen

October 25, 2006Teens have it awfully hard!  Oh man... I want a $60 t-shirt from Abercrombie, but my stupid parents will only buy me a $40 t-shirt from American Eagle.  How can I ever face my public?  I'm complicated, deep, and sophisticated, with a hidden dark side I never show the world.  I'm mysterious and cynical.  No one understands me.  I'm so alone.  I wear a mask that I use to hide the real me.  Don't try to help me.  It's too late.  No one thinks I'm pretty.  No one talks to me.  I live my life in a dank cave of misery while those around me enjoy the sunshine of normalacy.  I'm sinking deeper and deeper.  I'm drowning.  I will love Johnny forever, and he doesn't even know I exist.  I'm softly slipping into quiet oblivion.  No one cares.  I'm grounded from my cell phone until Friday.  I'm utterly alone and desolate.  Let me die.

Geez.  Pull yourselves together.  I understand that a lot of teens find their niche in playing the forgotten loner, dark and disturbed, but that doesn't make you cool.  That doesn't even make you interesting.  Now, most teens are interesting people, but pretending to be downtrodden isn't particularly endearing.  While some teens definitely have some serious problems, the majority of them are getting all worked up about the latest break up, grounding, or believed "betrayal".  Maybe they're just so self-absored they can't see how good they really have it.  All of us have great lives compared to most of the world, and pretending or believing that your problems are so grand that no one could possibly understand is rather ridiculous.  Besides the fact that it's irritating, it also alienates you (perhaps the point) and really darkens your outlook.  I'm not saying these kids aren't unique, but the drama and hyperbole detracts from that instead of contributing.

All things wise and wonderful

October 24, 2006Hmmh.... I'll admit it's totally a misnomer.  I have no intention of providing either.

Motorcycle update - I'm doing some much needed maintenance.  The chain is really worn, so I'll be replacing the chain and sprockets before I ride anymore.  It's too loose, and there's no more adjustment room.  I also changed the oil and filter, and ordered a K&N air filter (which can be taken out, washed, and reinstalled.... comes with a 1,000,000 mile warrantee!).  I owe her a good wash, but it's gonna have to wait.

Work - Lame-o.  I've been trying to stay busy, but it's been long and boring.  We're in between projects, and there's nothing major to do.  Odd jobs are even starting to be hard to come by.

Daniel's been sick and very fussy.  Liz, of course, bears the brunt of this, but it's still hard to come home after a long day at work and find a stressed-out wife and an angry baby.

And by the way - Google Talk rocks.  Download it.